Here’s a breakdown of the key points:
- The EUR/USD pair has been trading around the 1.0600 level with no clear direction.
- The US Dollar (USD) is under pressure, as reflected by the USD Index (DXY) trading below 106.00, partly due to an improved risk sentiment in the markets and the dovish signals from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.
- Investors expect the Fed to maintain current interest rates for the rest of the year.
- Speculation is growing that the European Central Bank (ECB) may pause its policy changes, despite rising inflation and concerns about the risk of a recession or stagflation in Europe.
- Germany has seen an annualized 4.5% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September.
- EUR/USD is looking to consolidate its recent breakthrough of the 1.0600 level.
- If upward momentum continues, the pair could target the September 20 high of 1.0736, followed by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0823.
- Further bullish scenarios include testing levels like 1.0945, 1.1000, 1.1064, 1.1149, and potentially reaching the 2023 peak of 1.1275.
- On the downside, if selling pressure resumes, the pair may retest the 2023 low at 1.0448, challenge the psychological level of 1.0400, and potentially revisit weekly lows at 1.0290 and 1.0222.
- It’s noted that as long as EUR/USD remains below the 200-day SMA, the potential for sustained downward pressure remains.
The technical analysis outlines potential support and resistance levels, suggesting a range of possible future scenarios for the currency pair. However, the direction of the EUR/USD will also depend on broader economic and geopolitical developments.